The figures for metal occupations as a whole speak for themselves: the German Economic Institute (IW Köln) expects employment in this field to decline by around 14% by 2028, driven by both a weak economy and a wave of retirements. At the same time, despite falling employee numbers, a gap remains: around 7,400 skilled workers are missing in metal construction and 5,300 in machining, simply because too few young people are entering the field.

The Federal Employment Agency’s annual bottleneck analysis confirms the trend for the labor market as a whole. Roughly one in eight of the occupations examined shows staffing problems. For many heat treatment shops, this is likely already showing up in everyday operations — in the form of unfilled apprenticeship positions or expertise that leaves the company along with retiring colleagues.

The training market itself is also sending warning signals. According to IG Metall’s 2025 training report, only around 25,800 new apprenticeship contracts were signed in the classic metal and electrical trades. That’s a 9.1% drop compared to the previous year, and a good fifth fewer than in 2019. As of the end of September 2025, according to the 2026 Vocational Training Report, around 54,400 apprenticeship positions remained unfilled nationwide, while roughly 84,400 young people were still looking for one. The decline in open positions mainly reflects a shrinking supply of training slots offered by companies.

Heat Treatment? Never Heard of It

Part of the problem lies in image: heat treatment is rarely visible in public perception, and where it is, it’s often associated with heavy, dirty industrial labor. Few school leavers know that modern heat treatment processes now rely on computer-aided process control and precision measurement technology. Competing against apprenticeships in IT or in more visible skilled trades, the industry has a correspondingly hard time even getting onto young people’s radar.

Industry and Association Work

The Arbeitsgemeinschaft Wärmebehandlung und Werkstofftechnik (AWT) explicitly sees youth outreach as part of its mission. It connects young members with companies and awards prizes to up-and-coming talent. Its regional “Härtereikreise” (heat treatment circles) and seminars create opportunities for personal exchange between experienced professionals and newcomers to the field. At industry events like the HärtereiKongress, too, the focus on the next generation is increasingly coming to the fore.

Something is happening on the media side as well: with its video format HeatStream, Vulkan Verlag offers short interviews that give insight into the industry and put faces to the people and everyday work of heat treatment. This helps make the field better known beyond specialist circles.

Such initiatives show that the industry has recognized the problem. What will matter is whether they turn into lasting structures — from dual training partnerships to more visible career paths within heat treatment.

Digitalization

Digitalization could also help heat treatment reach younger target groups. Modern, data-driven workplaces with process automation and digital analysis fit better with the self-image of a generation that grew up with technology than the cliché of a job done with a hammer and tongs. The skill profile is shifting: less pure manual labor, more process and data competence.

And What Does That Mean for Companies?

Beyond association work and industry-wide initiatives, a large share of the responsibility lies with the companies themselves. Traditional job postings barely reach young people where they actually look for information anymore. According to an analysis by vitalents, significantly more young people search for apprenticeships on short-video platforms like TikTok or Instagram than companies are actively present there with their own content. Those who show up early, with genuine insight into day-to-day work, stand out from the mass of generic job listings.

Low-threshold application processes make an additional difference: short video or chat-based applications instead of lengthy cover letters, a fixed point of contact for questions, and quick responses all increase the chance that interested candidates stay in the process. Companies also report good experiences with direct contact to schools — for example, through taster days involving real tasks rather than passive observation, or through apprentices who act as ambassadors at their former schools. Personal touchpoints like these build trust that a job posting alone cannot.

Much of the experiential knowledge in heat treatment is implicit — a feel for processes built up over decades that is difficult to capture in manuals. When experienced professionals retire, this knowledge risks disappearing if it isn’t passed on in time. Structured knowledge transfer and the consistent documentation of process knowledge are therefore becoming a future-critical issue for the industry in their own right.

Sources

• Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW Köln): IW Labor Market Projection 2025

• IW Köln, press release “2028: 768,000 Skilled Workers Will Be Missing”

• Federal Employment Agency, Skilled Labor Demand and Bottleneck Analyses

• Federal Employment Agency, press release “Qualified Skilled Workers Still in Demand”

• IG Metall, Training Report

• 2026 Vocational Training Report (BMBFSFJ)

• vitalents, “Apprentice Recruiting via Social Media: Why TikTok Decides Applications”

• Arbeitsgemeinschaft Wärmebehandlung und Werkstofftechnik e.V. (AWT)

• AWT Info in Härterei-Technische Mitteilungen (HTM), Issue 04-2024

• HeatStream, Vulkan Verlag’s video interview series

This report was written with the assistance of Artificial Intelligence.